CPI remained at 6.7% in September as falling food prices, household appliances and air fares were countered by rising motor fuel prices and hotel prices. Core inflation fell to 6.1% from 6.2% in August. The verdict is still out on whether the Bank of England will raise the base rate further.

Office of National Statistics reports average wage growth excluding bonuses was 7.8% between June and August, down slightly and in line with economists’ predictions. Including bonuses, annual wage growth dropped to 8.1% from 8.5%. Real pay increased by 1.3%, at a faster rate than inflation for the first time since October 2021. Wage growth is now thought to be beyond its peak.

Lambert Smith Hampton’s latest UK Investment Transactions (UKIT) report showed £7.4bn of transactions in Q3, down 14% on Q2’s already weak outturn. For the first time since 2012, Q3 also brought a fourth successive quarter of sub £10bn volume.

Morrisons’ US private equity firm owner Clayton Dubilier & Rice has sold 10 supermarkets to Realty Income Corporation for c. £175m.

JLL reports that the UK BTR sector attracted £451m of investment in Q3 2023, down 75% on Q3 2022. Overall, the figure was 62% below the five-year average, making it the quietest quarter since 2019.

Bayes Business School reports that overall loan origination in H1 2023 was down 22% to £18.8bn. Refinancing with existing lenders represents 52% of H1 UK lending. Nuveen, a TIAA company has finalised its single family BTR JV with Apache Capital. £200m+ of debt and equity funding will facilitate delivery of their first scheme of 373 homes in Cambridge.

Manner has agreed a joint venture with BlackRock to enable the construction of a £70m, 369-bedroom PBSA scheme on the site of the former House of Fraser site in Leeds.

– Mark Charlton Real Estate Research Consultant at Waypoint